ETMarkets Particular Podcast: Can 21-day lockdown push India into recession?

Hi there, ETMarkets Particular Weekend Podcast. And I’m Saloni Goel. We would possibly perhaps maybe be talking about the damage that Covid-19 had caused to the Indian financial system and if it will truly push us real into a recession.

The like a flash unfold of the virus has disrupted economies globally, as a lot of the arena has long past into lockdowns. In India, we can maintain performed neatly by way of being in a situation to get a address on the self-discipline by being earlier than the curve, nonetheless the 21-day lockdown of 130 crore other folks has resulted in large disruptions and dislocations of the financial system and agencies. It has slammed the brakes on financial job, risking predominant lack of earnings and jobs. That has solid friend of gloom on the non eternal improve outlook of the financial system, in particular for the principle half of of FY21. Fitch has lower India’s FY21 GDP improve projection to 2%, the bottom in 30 years. One more analyst stated he would possibly perhaps maybe no longer be greatly surprised if India finally ends up clocking adversarial GDP improve in the worst-case scenario.

So, how evil can this get truly?

We maintain now got with us Aditi Nayar, Main Economist at ICRA, to portion her outlook and suggestions on this difficulty.

Hey Aditi, welcome to the cloak.

1) How a lot influence would possibly perhaps maybe the coronavirus-led disruptions can maintain on the financial system in March and June quarters? What are your maintain projections?

2) How a lot cash the Indian financial system is anticipated to lose which ability that of the ongoing 21-day lockdown?

3) IMF and other agencies maintain forecast a recession for the global financial system. Can Indian too wait for a recession-love self-discipline? Make stronger your solution.

4) Which sectors enact you assume will revive first once this disaster gets over?

5) That are the predominant risks enact you wait for the Indian financial system after this lockdown ends?

That’s it on this week’s edition of special weekend podcast. Carry out attain support next Saturday for this weekly special. It’s most likely you’ll perhaps maybe review out our regular podcasts on the equity market twice each week day.

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